WHO WANTS TO HELP ME BUY ‘THE BULLETIN’?
Posted by James Tuckerman, Publisher, Founder & Editor-In-Chief
Last week, ACP Magazines made an announcement that, to my mind, simply didn’t make sense.
The Bulletin, Australia’s oldest continuing weekly magazine, would be closing after 128 years on Australian shelves.
According to ACP chief executive Scott Lorson, the magazine’s demise could be blamed on “the impact of the internet”. Circulation figures of 57,039 were approximately half of what the magazine enjoyed in the mid 1990s.
In a statement, Lorson said: “We have invested heavily in the title with top editorial, photographic and design staff who have been devoted to making The Bulletin the best of its genre. However, despite our best efforts, the magazine has simply not been commercially viable for some time.”
Indeed. A bit too ‘heavily’, me thinks. Let’s do the maths.
Firstly, with a retail cost of $5.95 per copy and sales of over 57,039, The Bulletin should be attracting weekly revenues of around $339,382. Of course, subscriptions make up part of this circulation figure and subscriptions are usually sold at around 30 percent less than retail. So, let’s be conservative and subtract 30 percent from the entire weekly sales figure estimated above, giving us weekly sales of $237,567.
Most Australian magazine publishers would agree, that’s a hefty chunk of change.
And, of course, that brief analysis fails to consider advertising revenue.
If memory serves me correctly, a full page advertisement in The Bulletin was around $14,000. You’d expect 20 full pages per edition. But, to err on the side of caution, let’s assume the ailing magazine has been attracting 10 full pages per edition. That’s $140,000 in advertising revenue per week. Factor in web advertising and you can safely project an even larger figure.
Add these two sums together and it seems reasonable to assume that the magazine was attracting approximately $375,000 in revenue per week.
That’s $1,562,500 per month.
Or… $18,750,000 per year!
Am I mad? Is this right?
How can an Australian magazine generating $18m a year in revenue be considered not ‘commercially viable’?
For those people who know a little bit about Anthill Magazine and its origins as a $15k start-up, you’ll appreciate my incredulity.
So here’s the thing: contrary to all the headlines, print media isn’t dying – it’s just changing out of necessity. Sure, it’s evolving away from an archaic model formed centuries ago during the Guttenberg era.
But that’s a good thing.
The reality is, for the vast majority of people in developed countries, print media is no longer their primary source of hard news (and that’s hardly news to anyone). Television and the internet are far too instantaneous, pervasive, cheap and easy to distribute and consume for print to remain competitive.
However, print can not only survive but thrive if it focuses on its strengths relative to these rival mediums: its ability to engage and inspire readers – alone in their armchairs, on the train, in their office.
The way The Bulletin did in its heyday.
So, here is my succinct message to private equity company CVC Capital Partners, which paid $4.5 billion to Packer’s Publishing and Broadcasting for 50 percent of PBL in October last year, owner of ACP Magazines:
For one shiny dollar, I offer to purchase 51 percent of The Bulletin. If the new entity does not turn a profit in the first year, you can have it back. I might want to make some changes. But heck, change would be better than a permanent holiday for this Aussie icon.
This blog post might sound like chest beating. But sometimes that’s the only way to wake an 800 pound gorilla.
Come on. Who wants to help me buy The Bulletin?
Tags: australian media, magazines, print media, the bulletin
February 1st, 2008 at 1:49 pm
James the difference between our view of running a business and theirs is that we don’t believe in having a bureaucracy to support.
That quickly eats away at all those telephone numbers of revenue.
Their making the announcement is also me thinks a fishing expedition
February 1st, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I think your numbers are probably too optimistic, but I like your arguement.
Most importantly, I like statement “print media isn’t dying – it’s just changing out of necessity”. Or at least, it is either changing or dying. I still love getting my hardcopy glossy Anthill magazine, but that doesn’t mean I don’t subscribe to far too many blogs as well.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Bugger the bureacracy. Buy it. Put the darn thing back where it belongs.
Do an IPO ( high speed if you like) I’ll put up some cash if I have a market to trade on.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:09 pm
James,
I agree with your thoughts.
I think that they want to make more of a profit and are not happy with a small profit … probably a decision made by someone in an ivory tower.
Anyhow, this does create an opportunity for smaller players, or players who are willing to do things differently, to take advantage of the opportunity.
I support you,
Joe
February 1st, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I totally agree with Bill’s comments. I would certainly put my money behind a buy-out. James, as usual you lead the pack! I would add my meagre savings to James’ offer to CVC.
Print media is definitely not dead - some publications just don’t appreciate multimedia the way Anthill does. I use both internet and print depending on where I am and how well my IT is working.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
James,
Not me.
I reckon paid copies are around 20k (half newsstand, half subs).
So that’s $2 million in newsstand sales. Plus $1 million in subs.
It would have been lucky to average 7 ads per issue.
So, lets be really generous and say $50k/week or 2.5 million per year.
Total revenue 5.5 million per annum.
Here’s my estimated breakdown:
Printing/week 70k (at cost) 3.5 million per year
Publisher 200,000
Editor 180,000
Seniro journos 250,000
Junior journos 540,000
Subs 300,000
Designers 200,000
Total 1.5 million per annum
Sales team
700,000
Distribution
300,000
Post
500000
Other costs
500,000
Total 2 million
Total costs 6.5 million
And the rumour is its losing 4 million per year, with all those in-house advantages. So either I’ve been super generous or someone’s having a lend.
That’s my opinion anyway.
David
February 1st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
I too think the numbers might be a bit optimistic… But here’s an idea.. What about a “crowd funded” buyout?
This sort of collective buying concept has been around for a while, but is really starting to show up in funny places. Check out http://www.springwise.com/lifestyle_leisure/crowdbuying_a_soccer_team_upda/ for a rundown of a crowd-funded purchase of a UK football club.
Maybe a similar thing could work out here… Sell memberships for $50 bucks, and if we get a certain amount of members, then we go ahead and try and buy the mag.
I guess the legalities would need to be sorted but hey, why not make it a mag “for Australians, owned by Australians”.
Chris
February 1st, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Indeed Chris. They were talking about Liverpool going this way just this morning. In fact, Real Madrid and Barcelona are owned by their (wealthier) fans.
Let’s “phoenix” The Bulletin and make it a lean monthly for the intelligent larrikin.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:35 pm
With you, as always, James!
I’ll even rustle you up some freelance writers and advertising sales people ….
February 1st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Go for it, James! There are plenty of loyal subscribers, myself included, who won’t be happy trading Patrick Cook et at for Dolly (or anything else in the PBL lineup). David’s figures (above) look a tad more realistic to me (except they add up to over $7 mill, not $6.5), but let’s say you can do some cost cutting AND, more to the point , some decent marketing. Eg not flogging subscriptions with the ‘lure’ of giveaways like 2 very inferior Chinese copy watches as they tried last June…. ever heard of brand degradation, guys?
I also agree with Fay - print media is definitely not dead. People still want information - the keyword being relevant - and are prepared to pay for it if they cannot find it elsewhere (and it’s marketed to them properly). Where will we get decent investigative journalism if The Bulletin is allowed to die? There’s not a lot of it on the internet, and whilst it does compete for people’s time, which all magazines and other media have to compete with, the net offers little of substance in the sort of debates and issues so well tackled by The Bulletin (the recent Gunns pulp mill expose springs to mind).
It’s also said that main market demographic is over 50s males, as if this is some form of death curse. Well, there are still quite a few of them around, with increasing amounts of time on their hands, so again this signifies the need for better marketing, plus some penetration into the younger age groups with maybe a bit of redesign (out of that $200K design budget). After all, The Bulletin has morphed considerably since 1840 - it would have died before this if it hadn’t - and it may simply be time for a new look (and a pruned cost structure, getting rid of all the dead wood overheads).
Buy the brand, James, and rebuild it.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
James
An interesting article and commentary as always. I like your idea, agree that the numbers may be a little generous but it creates an opportunity that someone (any why the hell not Anthill and its readers) can take advantage of.
We’re behind you all the way!
February 1st, 2008 at 2:54 pm
James, I have another dollar here. If they won’t accept one dollar you have some wiggle room.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Consider 100 staff members earning average $50k per year
(there were 66 names on the Editors page + other admin staff)
Also the maintenance of all their offices across the states
Then consider free subscriptions to their client portfolio (say 1000+?? and they gotta pay for postage and packing too)
Agent like MagShop & iSubscribe get a cut.
Newsagencies also get a cut, right?
Then a bigger chunk would be used to cover their printing and distribution costs.
Finally, consider the fact that the magazine has been flogging off OBC’s for $7000 and Full pages at $5k-$6k distress each week (and they have been doing that).
If I’m not mistaken the Bulletin did TV advertising late last year too. I guess it’s not about what they can make, it’s about how much they spend…
February 1st, 2008 at 3:13 pm
There are only two problems with the Bulletin that I can see. (Love a bold sweeping statement!)
Its current ownership and the content.
ACP are in trouble full stop. They’re lacking, and have been since a certain accountant took over the helm, clear vision and relying upon past glories to keep their revenue base. Its like watching a car crash in slow motion.
Market proliferation has hurt ACP more than any other publisher it seems. (Watch this space for when JP buys the business for lunch money!) If you speak their front line forces you get a real sense of the moral and state of health of the business.
Secondly, the magazine has lost its editorial edge. If a publication don’t exist to say something who is going to read you. Again full stop.
The Bulletin needs an independent crusader that is willing to take on the big topics facing Australia. I suspect that we’re all tired of ‘me too’ articles about meaningless dribble.
As for the issue regarding online… all mags are contending with the online world but most businesses are embracing online and working to make it a channel ally rather than a competitor. I cannot take my laptop to bed so a magazine makes much more sense for my late night reading.
What about buying it? Great idea, but gee, lets get the numbers right first. I like that Kerry S is after it, but that could be a PR stunt to PBL more than any serious offer.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:13 pm
An opportunity exists to do something with this outstanding, although almost forgotten, brand
There is no reason why a well written, tight, educational and informative magazine could not sit well alongside Anthill (owner of The Bulletin has a nice ring to it)
Count me in for a $ or two
February 1st, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Can I be the picture editor? Or chief photographer? I’ll consider an remuneration package which includes equity, if that helps
February 1st, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I wrote a lengthy post last week about the economics of why Australian newspapers being in decline (http://gdayworld.thepodcastnetwork.com/2008/01/27/state-of-the-news-print-media-in-australia-2007/) but I would love to see you guys buy The Bulletin mate. I have no doubt you could turn it around.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Wow! That’s ambitious James. And don’t tell me … you are going to call it The Bullant.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:29 pm
James
Even if your numbers are correct I think that you forgt one very important ingredient. ACP.
The infrastructure this organisation has and the channels it owns for the distribution of their products is awsome.
Whilst Anthill is a great publication in it’s own right I think you would need the ACP distribution network to make your Bulletin proposal work.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Craig, I’ll see you your dollar, and add two. (For good measure)
Go for it, James.
February 1st, 2008 at 3:57 pm
What a fantastic idea! Maybe the figures need tweeking but who cares? Obviously whatever James and his team do will be very different to the status quo, so the impediments listed can be mitagated, innovated or sidestepped all together!
Found this great quote the other day:
“Don’t wait. The time will never be just right” Napoleon Hill, American Author, 1883 -1970
Create that empire James!
February 1st, 2008 at 4:05 pm
The Local Bulletin is alive and well. Our Australian owned A4 52 page full color monthly community news magazine has seen steady growth for the last 12 years!
We distribute 20,000 copies a month of our print edition throughout the western suburbs of Brisbane and our website www.thelocalbulletin.com attracts visitors from around the world.
Small niche products are where news publishing started and where it will eventually return.
The key to a successful news magazine is to distribute to a limited area or target audience so that your information remains relevant and of course the old adage of quality product, fair price and good service also needs to be in the mix.
If you want to buy a quality magazine i will sell you mine its far more profitable and it is far more stable! :+))
Barry Searle
Owner/Editor
The Local Bulletin
February 1st, 2008 at 4:08 pm
The first blog post, and already the link bait is top notch.
Nice post..
February 1st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I’m in.
Look at my shiny dice!
I remember back in 1995 trying to persuade the higher-ups at RMIT Journalism to give us a lesson on the internet and journalism. Know what he (a Bulletin writer) came up with? A reprint of a print article about how the internet exists and that we might be able to use it for research… says it all.
What about matching print with… um… technology? When are we going to see some decent digital printing? Niching up a major masthead and providing custom content for different towns or interest groups? Huh?
February 1st, 2008 at 4:54 pm
James, I think you could just do it, if they’d let you. I’ll put in $5 if you need it. That expands your available capital by more than 125%.
February 1st, 2008 at 6:17 pm
James - Buy it, keep publishing it with its first-class crossword, and you can count me in for a $50.00 shareholding
February 1st, 2008 at 7:31 pm
James
Nice, I would like to see this discussed more widely in the community; because as you say it is an Australian icon…whatever becomes, I just hope that the numbers are put on the table, and other interested parties (including Anthill) are given the chance to sift through the ashes, and make an offer if they so desire! Maybe ACP will consider your offer for 51%?
February 1st, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hello all …
I am completely behind the idea. Without the bulletin, we’d not have “The Sentemintal Bloke”, “The Man from Snowy River” and a local view of the local news.
For management, I think you need to look at this as an iconic brand … And I’d love to see it as an equivalent “open source” publishing venture. Perhaps the nice people at GetUp! would like to get a voice in their stable!
Let me know if it gets serious. I’d love to be involved
Aloha,
Will
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 am
james
we’re all behind you..so walk the walk and get into it..
count me in for a $50 - $100 subscription
make that offer….
February 2nd, 2008 at 10:29 am
I agree with what No. 6 David said.
I’m ex ACP and the Bully has been losing money for years.
As a small publisher, though, you dont have the internal costs that ACP would so you could give it a go.
Note: circ revenue from newsstand and specialist retail is held by the distributor for the on sale period plus the returns period, which affects cash flow.
Giving it a go though, you may like to consider:
1. Frequency - news dates quickly hence the weekly nature of the Bully, if you take it bi-weekly or monthly, its old news, but, could work given its institutional brand.
2 Format Delivery - what about a paid e-newsletter each week, to start off, see how it goes. Do the readers prefer to read news online, email or in print? Do a poll on your web site James.
I dont read the Bully, just my thoughts, to help a fellow small publisher!
David
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:08 pm
count me in - wjhat can I do to help? Diane
February 3rd, 2008 at 9:54 am
James, I’m in for $10… (can some one lend me $5 ?)
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 pm
James,
When we met at a Sydney trade show a few years ago, i sensed you were a man of vison.
I hardly ever read the Bulletin, in the wrong market profile. A niche monthly aimed at males over 50 concenetrating on finance(super, etc.) travel and small business with a touch of politics would find a ready audience. A good letters to the editor section will be a powerful drawcard.
Whether you start online first and then print or vice versa is the big question.
Good Luck!
February 3rd, 2008 at 6:11 pm
While I agree with what has been written recently about the Bulletin’s descent into irrelevance, I also agree with media comments in both the Australian and the Fairfax press about its continuing influence notwithstanding.
As a result, I am forced to conclude that James Packer just doesn’t understand media. (However, I am old enough to recall that for a long time Kerry didn’t either!)
So let James P have his casino adventures, and let a lean and hungry publisher take over the Bully! (I am also old enough to remember another “lean and hungry..” publication. Lean and hungry like a ferret, the much lamented Nation Review.) We need the Bulletin, so go for it!
I don’t have much money to invest, but there are other ways of providing support.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:33 am
James
It’s a nice ‘idea’.
But unfortuantely that’s all it is. The key issue that you will need to address is whether there is any real need for a publication like the Bulletin. The market has given its answer. Falling subs, falling retail sales, falling ad placement.
If you are seriously thinking about, you need to find out what all the needs of the market place are and assess not only whether there is any opportunity, but how big it is!
Then, if there is any opportunity in the market, you need to validate that the Bulletin is the appropriate solution.
If this all stacks up - well, then I am in!
cheers
michael
February 4th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
James,
I count somewhere between $100 and $500 in pledged support in this blog - I’ll double it as an equity partner for your acquisition of 51% with ACP agreeing to release the 49% after one profitable year for 50% of the profit, or double the first purchase price, whichever is the greater. Key proviso, ACP has to keep all the leveraged debt to CVC, etal - or, just a minute, was that debt burden the cause of “not being commercially viable for some time”?!!?
February 5th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Should private equity companies be required to demonstrate some level of experience or capability in the specific industry field when they buy a company? Given what has happened to The Bulletin, no wonder there was so much nervousness around the attempted acquisition of Qantas by the Airline Partners consortium.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
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